Don't go viral, prediction betting, and why Emma Chamberlain is the dream brand partner. [+ never shared before links from my google docs]
Get 1 % culturally smarter
I’m currently in Dubai for work so writing from the pool - definitely cosplaying as a nomadic, coffee obsessed, freelancer but that is not the reality. I hate coffee and I’m scared of going freelance. What is a reality is how much signalling happens here. I don’ think I’ve seen as many Hermes Sandals in one concentration in my life. Sightings of a casual pink strap Richard Mille on a Jacquemus wearing individual on my way out from lunch suggests Dubai is turning up the volume on quiet luxury.
POLYMARKET IS BLOWING MY MIND, IS IT BLOWING YOURS?
Since the US presidential election, Polymarket has been blowing my mind (you can literally bet on anything). Especially after an anonymous French man placed a significant bet on Trump winning which saw him take home circa $80M in profit. So naturally I had to dig a little deeper. The thing I was most interested in was what made him so sure given the media were portraying a neck and neck race between the Democrats and Republicans? The three core things that had a part to play in this year’s election:
Mainstream media and social platforms - podcasts emerged as the MVP for presidential candidates in terms of reach and profiling offering something no other mass media channel could.
Billionaires had a big sway - Elon Musk is one of Trump's most prominent backers; Bill Gates has allegedly donated to Harris, while Mark Zuckerberg's allegiances remain murky.
Polymarket - the crypto enhanced prediction betting site which shows what people are betting on.
What’s so interesting about Polymarket is that it tells you about what the free market actually thinks, mainly because it’s anonymous and people’s P&L are public. It demonstrated a heavier leaning towards Trump with approximately 65:35 in his favour, despite the mass media portrayal of a tie break.
The 26 year old CEO was probably pre ordering yachts and models as the platform saw US presidential betting action exceed the $300M mark. This marked a huge feat given it's banned in the US, therefore the traffic was being driven by EU centric markets. There was one player that emerged triumphant, known as the Whale, it transpired that he was operating under multiple anonymous accounts which naturally generated a lot of attention given how visible his profits were. The American blockchain analysis firm, Chainalysis, delved into this story and found some very interesting revelations.
#1 The Whale, otherwise known as Theo wasn’t necessarily pro Trump or trying to push a win for him with these mammoth public bets
#2 Theo was tapped into the market behaviour vs. media portrayal i.e he did his OWN research.
Theo commissioned a separate polling company in the US to determine who US citizens were voting for. The smartest move was that he asked those polling individuals to state not who they would be voting for (as per traditional news outlets), but who their neighbour would be voting for. Those who shared who their neighbour would vote for indirectly revealed their own preferences. Results from this showed a clear Trump landslide and Theo quickly understood the media was telling a very different story meaning the bet was mis-priced.
This exploration has proved two crucial points:
Go Local: Public opinion is best understood by tapping into your immediate community. Think "neighbourhood knowledge" for a truly grounded perspective.
Forge Your Own Path: While it's easy to get swept up in the mainstream, there's immense value in forming your own opinions and seeking out independent results. Don't just accept the prevailing narrative – dig deeper, analyse, and uncover your own conclusion.
In a world saturated with information, opinions and breakdowns, critical thinking and independent exploration are more vital than ever. So, embrace the power of local perspectives and become the authors of you own unique insights.
EMMA CHAMBERLAIN X WARBY PARKER GOES OFF
By 2050 half of the population will be short sighted, so specs brands need to get in with younger audiences ASAP. Warby Parker’s latest partnership with Emma Chamberlain gets an A*, it’s intentional, creative and genuinely thoughtful. You can tell they let her create, contribute and not just comply.
Since 9th November they have been teasing the collaboration and the internet absolutely loves it. Not only is it aesthetically very satisfying, it was accompanied with a mini launch ecosystem which more brands need to integrate to their campaign structures especially when going to market with something/someone who commands serious investment.
Not only is this some of her best performing branded content on her feed (sitting at 8.5M views), it’s a huge win for Warby Parker’s Gen Z appeal judging by the overwhelmingly positive sentiment across social platforms. Why I think they nailed it:
#1 Build, launch and sustain - strong teases, launch amplification and a sustained voice made it memorable.
#2 Creative strategy - it was all about leaning into different modes of you, making it appealing to a spectrum of archetypes which feel relatable - recognising Gen Z experience ‘chaos personalities’.
#3 Physical presence - the exclusive pop up explored an archival fashion library curated by Chamberlain herself
#4 Merch - this creates a roaming brand touchpoint for the brand allowing it to build equity in different circles. As well as being a badge of honor.
#5 Truly creative - the artwork releases illustrated by Isabelle Copier showcased a movement of ‘by the community for the community’ vs. ‘brand to community’- making it feel thoughtful vs. spray and pray, mass creation.
The creative showed all the different things you can do in the glasses, from baking to snorkelling and from driving to being shot out of a cannon. My favourite comment goes to:
LOOKALIKE COMPETITIONS ARE A LESSON IN HUMAN CONNECTIVITY
First it was Timothee, followed by Harry Styles in London, thirdly was Dev Patel, then a Paul Mescal edition popped up, and this week in Chicago we saw homage being paid to a plethora of Jeremy Allen White lookalikes. Why are these so sticky?
#1 Firstly because brands haven’t tried to have their way with them and make them feel something they are not.
#2 Secondly they are about a common interest: the celebrity. Fandoms are one of the most powerful societal structures today. They form these unbreakable bonds and become advocates for these stars. They trust them, they are sources of familiarity and are rooting for them. Stars make fans FEEL and make them get off their seats - that's powerful.
#3 Thirdly, community. This is the equivalent of dudes striking up football conversation with total strangers - it’s just seamless. Same with this. These meet ups allow you to go by yourself but know you will meet people with a common interest. The ice is already broken.
#4 Finally it is entertainment - people love a beginning, middle and end and this is exactly what these moments provide. Hype, reveal, outcome. It's basically a short form that you can all live.
LINKS > DRINKS
Things I’ve been loving
#1
Not going viral, is the new going viral. This speaks to my soul and presumably to those who also ‘dig’ for the story, observation, insight etc. The posts that no one knows about is where it’s at. Maximum 4 likes is my new bar of excellence.
#2
The Mercedes F1 team are hiring for a ‘Marketing Clothing Executive’ to dress their drivers inside and outside of the race calendar. Whilst this role was probably born out of the fact Hilfiger x Mercedes have cut ties due to Hamilton’s team exit, it also shows strengthening convergence between sport and fashion. BOF wrote about HERE.
#3
Mumbai Local trains are known as the lifelines of the capital, and music is an essential part of the commute, some people tend to use headphones and some people tend to make a human choir, but Crab Cultured recorded a hip hop set and it slapped. Would pay for a flight and train ticket to see these guys live and direct.
#4
‘She’s a 4’ is something we are hearing A LOT on the internet right now. What effect are our perfectly polished algorithms having on our dating standards and expectations when it comes to beauty grading - ring lights are not real life people! Read about it HERE or watch a deep dive on the ‘Hot-Pocalypse’ by Tara Mooknee below.
#5
Obviously Martha Stewart’s documentary gets a mention. A big lesson in how perfection can be the enemy which reflected her journey in and out of the relevance cycle. From a social level, it shone a stark light on how you will be less accepted the more you act ‘out of gender’ - what does this say about society? Working on a full analysis but in the meantime I love how much she hates her own documentary. Seriously, how can she be unlikeable to anyone outside of her team?!
A COOL IDEA I HAD ON SATURDAY
I was at the carwash this week and 100% believe there is a branded or non branded content opportunity here. Three key rationales:
#1 There is something so satisfying about watching a filthy AF car go from dusty to pure.
#2 There’s something about feeling so safe in a car whilst it is being cleaned from the outside.
#3 Having a clean car is a small luxury.
The idea: imagine a Balenciaga car wash takeover, the wash guys are dressed in full Balenciaga, a series of epic/random cars coming through, and a conversational format between X and Y. With the right subject matter and the right guests this could take off. We need more formats that have the power to catapult into the mainstream these days and luxury brands need to be more approachable. One girl I’ve been seeing doing the most and grinding at is Iona, founder of Stargazer, she interviews emerging artists under the stars in her bedroom - keep going!!!
A RANDOM THING I’M DOING
Ever feel like the month just slips away without you really noticing? I hate that! I've always been a big believer in keeping track of things I do – looking back always brings me joy, excitement, and sometimes even a shock of "wow, I was busy!"
So, this month I've started a new little ritual: randomly jotting down all the cool cultural things I've been experiencing. Think film Q&As, YouTube shows, books, podcasts, meet ups etc. I'm curious to see what kind of cultural tapestry I weave over the next six months. See below!
I hope you enjoyed the Google Doc dump. Will be back next month for another Google Doc download <3